Monday, January 4, 2021


One evil that a country or people can do is to know the truth and pretend as if the truth does not exist.

You will know the truth and the truth shall set you free says the word of God in John 8 verse 32.

When Nigeria returned to the process of  Democracy in 1998 and eventually power was handed over to democratically elected President in 1999, two key factors played vital roles which are :

1. Religion and 2. Ethnicity.

Even though most people know about this truth  but many pretend about it to do mischief.

To allow for Peace and Stability in Nigeria, the position of President and Vice President must take care of religion and ethnicity in a rotational manner.

Join me to do a quick review of this empirical truth that cannot be changed in 2023.

1. In 1999 Obasanjo became President and he is from the South. His vice;  Alhaji Atiku Abubabakar is from the north.

He is a Christian and his vice a Muslim.

Power was handed over to him by a Muslim;  Abdusalam Abubabakar. ( Rotation)

Some will argue that it was the right thing to do then to compensate us in Yoruba Land and Abeokuta in particular, having deprived MKO Abiola the victory of 1993 election.

Yes, as it was right then, we have followed that unwritten code till date and it is the only way for Peace and Stability in our democracy.

Anyone who argue against that rotation along religion and ethnicity for those two key positions could be  pretending or ignorant of associated implications.

2. In 2007, Umoru Yaradua became President and he was from the North.

His Vice, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan came from the South.

Yaradua was a Muslim and Jonathan a Christian.

Power was handed over to Yaradua by Obasanjo from the South and a Christian.

3. In 2011, Jonathan became President and he is from the South and his Vice Namadi Sambo from the North.

Jonathan a Christian and Sambo a Muslim.

I left the completion of Yaradua's  Tenure under the doctrine of necessity by Jonathan because that was not a fresh election and even at  that, the choice of a Muslim  Vice President was also in accordance with that Unwritten Federal Character Code on Religion and Ethnicity to enhance Stability, Unity and Peace.

4. In 2015, Buhari a northerner became the President and his Vice , Prof. Yemi Osinbajo from the South.

Buhari is a Muslim and Osinbajo a Christian.

Power was handed over to Buhari by Jonathan; a Christian, Southerner.

I recalled in Lagos before Ambode was chosen; noise went round that, after Fashola; a Muslim, it was equitable for a Christian to become the Governor of Lagos State.

Political Party Leaders in Lagos then who are still the key leaders today  understood  the voice of the people and in their wisdom carefully sought for Ambode.God bless Asiwaju for his role in chosing in response to the people's Choice ..Since Ambode did not do a second term, a Christian,  Babajide Sanwo-Olu came on board in 2019. 

There is no better empirical evidence than that which I have enumerated above.

I know some people will argue that, well, despite all the above unwritten code of Federal Character; what have we gained as a country.?

To those school of thoughts; let me inform you; we gained Stability and the relative Peace we still have today, if not, crisis would have erupted in a civil war manner.

I also think States should now embrace that culture of rotation using their respective senatorial districts.

For example, my State has Ogun Central, Ogun East and Ogun West. After Osoba, From the Central, Gbenga Daniel came on board from the East, Amosun followed from the Central and Dapo Abiodun followed from the East. The Ogun West have not been able to bring their sons and daughters on that seat because of disunity among them.

Some said we have Egba and Ijebu...Combining Egbado or Yewa with Egba while Ijebu in the real sense is a combination of Remo with Ijebu.

So, unwritten Codes in my State is like between two districts...Egba and Ijebu..Egba can then chose to present an Egba or Egbado/Yewa candidate while Ijebu can chose to present Ijebu or Remo person.

Let me return to my main issue which is 2023 Presidential Election, Now that Buhari Osinbajo's tenure will end on May 29, 2023, the following is a MUST If we want Peace and Stability in accordance with the empirical study.

1. The next President MUST be from the South.The Vice President must be from the North.

2.The Next President must be a non Muslim.( Chrsitianity and Islam  being the two major dominant religion, makes it fair for the next President to be a Christian)..

There could be an exception of a liberal person ( Like  MKO Abiola ) but today; am not discussing exception but BALANCE of Power for National Unity, Stability and Peace.

So people may ask me, who are you suggesting and how do you want this achieved.?

Here is the way to go about it.

A. All major Political Parties must have their Presidential Candidate from the South and that candidate must not be a Muslim.( By South, I mean South West, South East or South South.)

(Human Right issue comes in here but focus on stability and unity and leave  the issue of right of anybody to aspire to be president regardless of religion and ethnicity.I know about that right..With the current situation, that may not fly now.

B.The Vice Presidential Candidate must be from the North and must be a Muslim.

Someone may ask, how about Muslim Southerner and Christian Northerner?

Actually, Vice President position is not a separate ticket but a joint ticket..Hence main focus is that position of President and who occupied it before a new one is sworn in.

C.The so called candidates must be chosen from among our best brains from the respective region and religion  mentioned above.

We cannot afford to bring anyone without a degree nor anyone without idea, energy, integrity and relevant governance experience which could have been acquired from Private or Public Service.

All Professional Bodies must make sure we have the best in Political leadership position.

Before you criticize my position on the above, first think twice and do not argue it without considering the implications on National  Stability, Peace and Unity.

Over time, we may overcome this aa a result of growth in democracy .US and UK did not get there suddenly. They grew over time.

God bless Nigeria and God bless Africa.

The Author, Dr.Gbenga Adeoye is an Economic and Political Analyst, a Chartered Accountant, an Arbitrator of UK and Nigeria. He holds a PhD in Management Accounting.

He also holds a Bachelor's Degree in Law and a Diploma in Criminology and Security Studies.

He is passionate about Social, Economic Development of Africa in general and Nigeria in Particular.He is an advocate of  Good Governance and Tax Justice.

He can be reached via e mail  through

Dated 4th January, 2021.

No comments:

Post a Comment